Sunday 1 April 2012

Believing in probability, pot odds, and equity value concepts

The reason we think in terms of pot equity, and pot odds is because good poker strategy exploits long-term probability. For example 2 outs at the flop requires pot odds of 14 to 1 in order to break even. Making these types of calls will earn money long-term as long as you utilize the odds correctly because probability theory will work out correctly in the end. The 13 times you lose in this example is offset by the one time you win, and therefore break even (make a call at greater than break even odds to make a profit).


lose - lose - lose - lose - win - lose - lose - lose - lose - lose - lose - lose - lose - lose 


Sticking to the correct strategy requires clarity, and belief in the truth of probability theory, and maybe also a little courage in the face of a string of losses. 

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